I started reading Andrew Sullivan recently for some reason (He is a Republican and I am most definitely not!) I found this column hard to shrug off... I fear that there will be an attack here before November, and that this is a leadup to it.
Some things Sullivan says I have to disagree on, of course.
if the appeasement brigade really do believe that the war to depose Saddam is and was utterly unconnected with the war against al Qaeda, then why on earth would al Qaeda respond by targeting Spain? If the two issues are completely unrelated, why has al Qaeda made the connection? The answer is obvious: the removal of the Taliban and the Saddam dictatorship were two major blows to the cause of Islamist terror. They removed an al Qaeda client state and a potential harbor for terrorists and weapons of mass destruction. So it's vital that the Islamist mass murderers target those who backed both wars. It makes total sense.
There is no evidence that Al Qaeda was in Iraq under Saddam. Sullivan's language is deliberately vague here. However, war supporters kept saying that this war was going to change the Middle East and make it safe for democracy, etc. What better way for Al Qaeda to say, "Not so fast, suckers!"
Sullivan also argues that the fact that the Socialists won in Spain as a result of the terrorist attack is a victory for Al Qaeda. But in Israel, the terrorist attacks caused the Likud party to rise to the top. In fact, every time there's movement towards peace, there's another suicide bombing, which reinforces the extremists on both sides and ensures that there will be no resolution. That certainly is a victory for the terrorists, and I'm not the only one who says so!
I think Americans would probably react differently to another attack, because the war in Iraq enjoyed higher support here at the time (and even now), whereas in Spain, 80% were opposed. You can't ignore your citizens to that extent and expect to retain your support. The moment there was a crisis, all the resentment from last year boiled over. It also didn't help that the government panicked and tried to blame ETA. It looked really bad. I'd like to think our leaders might learn something — lying to your voters is a bad idea — but I doubt it.
Here's a different take on the matter from somebody I agree with more frequently!, oh, and this (and a bunch of other postings from TalkLeft)
I really hope we don't have to find out what would happen, but I fear we will. This year scares me.
